Note: Learn about +EV and devigging on the
devigger's help page. And check out the devigger itself
here.
Note2: Fair value is calculated from the worst-case between market average and median.
How to Interpret +EV%
CNO +EV% can look different depending on which devig method is being used.
Liquidity-Weighted gives more weight to higher-liquidity books and books with higher limits, while also factoring in how limits change as game time approaches. This method is designed to better reflect where the market's sharper money and confidence may be.
Unweighted Market Consensus treats all books equally and is useful for finding outliers, but the outlier is not always wrong. Sometimes the outlier is actually the sharper price.
Conservative is the most cautious option. It does the best job of filtering out soft-sided outliers, but it can also hide some legitimately profitable edges.
Because exchanges and certain sharper books can move earlier or reflect sharper action in some markets, a play showing as +EV under one method may be weaker or disappear under another. This is especially true in smaller or sharper markets such as some player props.
For more information, see the
Devig Methods FAQ.