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CrazyNinjaMike's Up By 2 Runs Devigger Assistant
Devigger Assistant:
Underdog/Favorite:
Away/Home:
BetPoints:
(The Total Runs Over/Under like: 8.5)
Devigger LegOdds:
(ie. Pinny's moneyline odds like: +180/-210)
Bet Odds:
(DK's moneyline odds like: +175)
Tables/Data:
This table shows the historical percentage of the time that a team got up by 2 runs when they lost. The data has been smoothed out to help the tail-ends that have less (or no) data.
Variables are:
Underdog/Favorite -> Underdogs have much better payouts, making them better for the promo, since the favorites are only slightly more likely (on average) to get up by 2 and lose.
Away/Home -> Away teams have a better chance to get up by 2
BetPoints -> Higher scoring games (higher over/unders) have a better chance for either team to get up by 2 at some point.
I used Killer Sports to estimate the percentages. See here for an example query: killersports.com
and killersports.com
That returns, in games with an over/under (total) between 7 and 8, that when our Away (A) Underdog (D) Loses (L) (ADL), 1328 times the team (t:) has gotten up by 2 (BL= Biggest Lead) at some point in the game. 5080 times they did not.
That's 6,408 total. 1328/6408 = 20.7% of the time the Away Underdog's losses were when they were actually leading by 2 at some point.
Away Underdog:
| Value |
Percentage |
| 0.5 |
0.95% |
| 1 |
2.36% |
| 1.5 |
3.77% |
| 2 |
5.19% |
| 2.5 |
6.60% |
| 3 |
8.02% |
| 3.5 |
9.43% |
| 4 |
10.85% |
| 4.5 |
12.26% |
| 5 |
13.68% |
| 5.5 |
15.09% |
| 6 |
16.51% |
| 6.5 |
17.92% |
| 7 |
19.33% |
| 7.5 |
20.75% |
| 8 |
22.16% |
| 8.5 |
23.58% |
| 9 |
24.99% |
| 9.5 |
26.41% |
| 10 |
27.82% |
| 10.5 |
29.24% |
| 11 |
30.65% |
| 11.5 |
32.06% |
| 12 |
33.48% |
| 12.5 |
34.89% |
| 13 |
36.31% |
| 13.5 |
37.72% |
| 14 |
39.14% |
| 14.5 |
40.55% |
| 15 |
41.97% |
| 15.5 |
43.38% |
| 16 |
44.79% |
| 16.5 |
46.21% |
| 17 |
47.62% |
| 17.5 |
49.04% |
| 18 |
50.45% |
| 18.5 |
51.87% |
| 19 |
53.28% |
| 19.5 |
54.70% |
Home Underdog:
| Value |
Percentage |
| 0.5 |
0.37% |
| 1 |
1.36% |
| 1.5 |
2.35% |
| 2 |
3.34% |
| 2.5 |
4.32% |
| 3 |
5.31% |
| 3.5 |
6.30% |
| 4 |
7.29% |
| 4.5 |
8.28% |
| 5 |
9.27% |
| 5.5 |
10.26% |
| 6 |
11.25% |
| 6.5 |
12.24% |
| 7 |
13.22% |
| 7.5 |
14.21% |
| 8 |
15.20% |
| 8.5 |
16.19% |
| 9 |
17.18% |
| 9.5 |
18.17% |
| 10 |
19.16% |
| 10.5 |
20.15% |
| 11 |
21.14% |
| 11.5 |
22.12% |
| 12 |
23.11% |
| 12.5 |
24.10% |
| 13 |
25.09% |
| 13.5 |
26.08% |
| 14 |
27.07% |
| 14.5 |
28.06% |
| 15 |
29.05% |
| 15.5 |
30.04% |
| 16 |
31.02% |
| 16.5 |
32.01% |
| 17 |
33.00% |
| 17.5 |
33.99% |
| 18 |
34.98% |
| 18.5 |
35.97% |
| 19 |
36.96% |
| 19.5 |
37.95% |
Away Favorite:
| Value |
Percentage |
| 0.5 |
4.27% |
| 1 |
5.64% |
| 1.5 |
7.01% |
| 2 |
8.39% |
| 2.5 |
9.76% |
| 3 |
11.13% |
| 3.5 |
12.50% |
| 4 |
13.87% |
| 4.5 |
15.25% |
| 5 |
16.62% |
| 5.5 |
17.99% |
| 6 |
19.36% |
| 6.5 |
20.73% |
| 7 |
22.11% |
| 7.5 |
23.48% |
| 8 |
24.85% |
| 8.5 |
26.22% |
| 9 |
27.59% |
| 9.5 |
28.97% |
| 10 |
30.34% |
| 10.5 |
31.71% |
| 11 |
33.08% |
| 11.5 |
34.46% |
| 12 |
35.83% |
| 12.5 |
37.20% |
| 13 |
38.57% |
| 13.5 |
39.94% |
| 14 |
41.32% |
| 14.5 |
42.69% |
| 15 |
44.06% |
| 15.5 |
45.43% |
| 16 |
46.80% |
| 16.5 |
48.18% |
| 17 |
49.55% |
| 17.5 |
50.92% |
| 18 |
52.29% |
| 18.5 |
53.66% |
| 19 |
55.04% |
| 19.5 |
56.41% |
Home Favorite:
| Value |
Percentage |
| 0.5 |
5.27% |
| 1 |
6.09% |
| 1.5 |
6.91% |
| 2 |
7.73% |
| 2.5 |
8.55% |
| 3 |
9.37% |
| 3.5 |
10.19% |
| 4 |
11.01% |
| 4.5 |
11.83% |
| 5 |
12.65% |
| 5.5 |
13.47% |
| 6 |
14.29% |
| 6.5 |
15.11% |
| 7 |
15.93% |
| 7.5 |
16.75% |
| 8 |
17.57% |
| 8.5 |
18.39% |
| 9 |
19.21% |
| 9.5 |
20.03% |
| 10 |
20.85% |
| 10.5 |
21.67% |
| 11 |
22.49% |
| 11.5 |
23.31% |
| 12 |
24.13% |
| 12.5 |
24.95% |
| 13 |
25.77% |
| 13.5 |
26.59% |
| 14 |
27.41% |
| 14.5 |
28.23% |
| 15 |
29.05% |
| 15.5 |
29.87% |
| 16 |
30.69% |
| 16.5 |
31.50% |
| 17 |
32.32% |
| 17.5 |
33.14% |
| 18 |
33.96% |
| 18.5 |
34.78% |
| 19 |
35.60% |
| 19.5 |
36.42% |